In the latest committee meeting, the project team discussed that they want to get the total cost under $400 million so that they can go through the Small Starts program instead of the New Starts program. That is going to require some scope reduction, and they basically said going past Maplewood Mall puts the project cost too high.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iojUKZ_NrxM
Technically, they said that the project cost, which includes
40% contingency at this point, has to be brought under $400M for small starts. At 30% design, contingency requirement is 33%. At 60% design, it's 27%. At 95% design/pre-bid, it's 20%. I think they said that the purple line is currently at 15% and 30% design for certain options/parts of the corridor.
Total costs can be brought under $400M for New Starts by cutting costs and/or funding some parts of the project separately. They do discuss sharing stations with the H Line along Maryland Ave if they go the Maryland/White Bear Ave route - so perhaps there is room for sharing costs in the accounting there. They could also advance the small St John's/County Rd D extension as part of the project planning (like what was done with Eden Prarie Town Center Station) to either be paid for by separate funding, or by contingency as design/engineering work advances.
This definitely can't/won't go to White Bear Lake, between funding limitations and a lack of support from the city of WBL thanks to nimbys.
The County Rd D stop that would be added along with the St John's stop would definitely be a nice addition, since it's right next to a bunch of housing and the pedestrian/bike connection over 694.
For the White Bear Ave options they are also discussing 1 vs 2 dedicated lane side running in the southern part of the corridor, and center running vs 2 side running for the dedicated lanes in the northern part of the corridor. 2 dedicated side running lanes on Maryland and southern WBA and center running in Maplewood would be great - especially with those bus lanes along Maryland being used by the H Line too.
From Union Depot to the Maplewood Mall transit center would cost $275M-$287M base, $104M-$108M contingency, for a total cost of $379M-$396M (the ranges are from the cost differences between the 1 lane/2 lane and side running/center running alternatives).
From Union Depot to St John's/County Rd D would cost $306M-$318M base, $117M-$123M contingency, for a total cost of $423M-$441M.